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Since this board has become virtually dead because it’s now basketball season and this has never been a hoops board and our basketball team is stinking it up anyway, I thought I’d try to stimulate some discussion about our bowl game. So here are 15 points which occurred to me as I compared the Ohio Bobcats to our frustrating Aztecs. Feel free to object to anything I’ve said; I’m a big boy and unlike what at least used to be the norm on the oldest and far more active SDSU board, I can take it.
SIMILARITIES
1. The schools. Each is a large public university with attendance of +/- 35,000. SDSU is at #127 in the USNWR ranking of national universities and Ohio is at #171.
2. Coaches who are “Long” in the tooth. With Bill Snyder’s retirement, at 73, Frank Solich is the oldest head football coach in America at 73. Rocky is third at 67. Solich has 163 career wins in 20 years as a head coach, Rocky has 136 wins in 19 years. Both have done poorly in bowl games: 5-9 for Solich, 4-8 for Rocky. For this game there is no difference in the coaching.
3. Disappointing seasons. If you’re reading this, you follow the Aztecs enough that it doesn’t need to be explained to you why our team failed to live up to expectations. Regarding Ohio, although the Bobcats went 8-4, they (1) failed for the 50th consecutive year to win their conference even though Phil Steele had them as the 43rd most experienced of the 130 FBS teams as the result of which (2) eight of his nine “power ratings” predicted that Ohio would win 10 or 11 games and (3) the other power rating predicted the Bobcats would go 12-0. Similarly, (4) Bill Connelly’s computer gave Ohio a 45% chance of going undefeated. The difference in terms of failing to meet expectations is whereas the Aztecs finished the season as a hot mess, the Bobcats won five of their last six. However, two years ago Ohio won seven of its last nine yet still lost to Troy in the Dollar General Bowl so how much will its impressive finish mean on Dec. 19th? I’m going to call this a slight advantage for Ohio.
4. Game Site. Neither team played a neutral site game this year. The DFW area is more than 1,000 miles from both schools and although SDSU has 10 players from Texas, Ohio has only one. So it’s doubtful that either team will have much fan support in the soccer stadium the game will be played in. With regard to road game performance, although Ohio was 6-0 in its stadium in Athens, the Bobcats were just 2-4 on the road. Two of the losses were to OOC bowl teams Virginia and Cincinnati, the other two by three and two points at NIU and Miami, Ohio, also bowl teams. The Aztecs were 2-3 on the road this year also losing by single digits to bowl teams within their conference. If it’s an apt comparison, we beat NIU by 6 at Qualcomm last year and NIU finished 8-5 for a second consecutive season this year. Although if the weather is bad some Ohio fans might think that’s to their advantage over a school from SoCal, since under Rocky we might even be better in inclement weather than when it’s sunny, I see no advantage for either school regarding the site of the game.
5. Run first, pass second. In 2017, Ohio ran the ball 58% of the time on offense. This year, Ohio ran the ball 64% of the time. The Bobcats therefore ran the ball ~61% of the time the last two years. In 2017, SDSU ran the ball 70% of the time. This year without Rashaad Penny and Juwan Washington for half the season the Aztecs ran the ball 63% of the time. So we run the ball slightly more than does Ohio but neither offense relies on the pass. I’ll address the passing advantage/disadvantage factor below. Offensive style should have no bearing on the result.
6. Running back. Although not as small as the 5-7, 190 lb. Juwan Washington, Ohio RB AJ Quellette is just 5-9 and listed as just 205. Looking at video, Quellette is like Washington in that back in the day both would have been referred to as a scatback. Quellette’s average per carry the last two years has been 5.2 and 6.2, Washington’s 6.0 in 2017 when he was fully healthy and 4.8 this year when he wasn’t. Assuming Juwan will be completely healthy as expected, this factor is again a push.
7. Special teams. Neither team is special in this area. Both have good but not great kickers (Baron was great in 2017 but not this season) and decent punters but neither has shown anything in the return department. (At least with Binkley back there the Aztecs aren’t fumbling ever other punt anymore.)
DIFFERENCES
1. Turnovers created. Remember when SDSU used to be consistently among the national leaders in turnover ratios? I hardly do either. We had nine, count ‘em nine, interceptions this year whereas a couple seasons ago Damontae Kazee had 8 all by himself. Worse, we recovered a pathetic 4 opponent fumbles all season. Part of that was obviously the bounce of the ball since we forced 13. But c’mon! Rocky Long defenses never recover fumbles only every third game. Ohio? The Bobcats had 15 interceptions and a like number of fumble recoveries. 30 forced turnovers versus just 13? Time will tell but this appears to be a HUGE advantage for Ohio.
2. Front six/seven. Aside from stupid personal fouls and offsides penalties, SDSU’s group is clearly superior. All but one of Ohio’s front seven did not start a year ago whereas four of SDSU’s six are returning starters as is safety/LB hybrid Parker Baldwin. Also, Ohio’s leading tackler is LB Even Crouch whose 79 tackles pale in comparison to Kyahva Tezino’s 120. Since nobody has stopped Tezino all year there’s no reason to think Ohio can. Big advantage SDSU.
3. Secondary. Ours has been spotty in covering the long pass this year but they all have plenty of talent. I know little about Ohio’s secondary with one exception: they aren’t big. Granted they’re only an inch or two per man smaller than the guys we play but with the exception of Ohio’s tight end who is rarely thrown to, the Bobcats don’t have a receiver taller than 6-1. In contrast, excepting Dedeaux and Busbee, here are the heights of SDSU’s receivers: Trevillion and Kobe Smith 6-2 and both can jump; Houston 6-3; Wilson 6-4 and he can jump; Macklin 6-5; Warring 6-6. Hunkie Cooper has been recruiting tall receivers for exactly the kind of smallish defenders Ohio has. Will our offensive coordinator try to exploit that? (I laugh as I type but miracles do happen.) Potentially big advantage to SDSU.
4. Quarterback. SDSU is mediocre at best at this most important position on the field. Christian Chapman was very good when he had a top-notch line in front of him along with two of the best RBs in college football in Pumphrey and Penny. However, without those two components even when healthy Chapman has not played well this season. Ryan Agnew can be very good to awful depending on the circumstances. In contrast, although not exactly a superstar, Ohio’s second year starter and JC transfer Nathan Rourke has been consistently good. So IF our defense is fully motivated and IF Rocky puts more effort into prepping them to play than he appeared to do for Army a year ago, Rourke could be a non-factor. Advantage Ohio unless Rocky’s 3-3-5 confuses Rourke enough that he’s unable to play any better than Chapman and Agnew.
5. Offensive line. It’s no secret that on a team which disappointed, no unit underachieved anywhere near as much as SDSU’s O-line. Granted Zach Thomas was out all year with injury but there is simply no excuse for five guys who Phil Steele predicted would be the best in the conference to have been so bad. Since Ohio has a very pedestrian front seven, maybe SDSU’s O-line can redeem itself in its final game of the year. However, if they play as badly as they sometimes did this year, the game could be a blowout. As to Ohio, all I know is that one service voted their left tackle, senior Joe Lowery, the MAC player of the year. Big advantage Ohio.
6. Wide receiver. Although after 12 games SDSU still hasn’t found a go-to guy with Fred Trevillion the leader with a paltry 22 catches (albeit for significant yardage), Ohio’s Papi White caught 32 passes in 2017 and 58 this year. White is another little guy at just 5-9 so he won’t give the cornerback covering him fits like receivers from Stanford and ASU did this year but that doesn’t mean he won’t beat single coverage for a few long gains in the Frisco Bowl. As much as I love Ron Smith in run support, the thought of him trying to cover White deep is a scary
proposition. Slight advantage Ohio.
7. Tight end. Ohio’s primary TE Conner Brown is basically a third offensive guard as he has caught only 7 passes all year for just 63 yards. In contrast, SDSU has Parker Houston and particularly Kahale Warring who have combined for over 40 catches. Of course, that ostensible advantage for SDSU won’t matter if SDSU’s offensive coordinator insists on running the ball between the tackles 70% of the time so the two studs do little more than block. Potentially huge advantage SDSU.
8. Offenses in general. SDSU has averaged ~26 ppg the last two seasons whereas Ohio has averaged ~40 ppg during that time. Nuff said. Regardless of SDSU having played a bit tougher schedule, again the advantage goes to Ohio.
PREDICTION
Aside from its mere 6-point victory over somebody named Howard to begin the 2018 season, Ohio is just 2-4 the last two years in games decided by a TD or less. In contrast, the Aztecs are 8-4 over that time in such games and a couple of those losses were attributable to the usually reliable John Baron missing what for him were chip shot FGs and a third can be attributed to Jeff Horton stupidly calling a pass play at the close of our bowl game last year. So I think if the Frisco Bowl is within a TD in crunch time, we will win. However, if there was ever an offense not built to make large comebacks it’s the one constructed by Jeff Horton so if the Aztecs should happen to get behind by more than two TDs thereby forcing us to mainly pass the ball, I foresee a bunch of turnovers by our Aztecs and a blowout loss.
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